Apology
What do the pollsters say? Polls guru Nate Silver has apologised. He estimated a 71 per cent probability that Clinton would win the election. On Silver’s own website leading experts in the field are interviewed and they are all in agreement. And as if this was not enough; the gathered data is not only erroneous, no one seems to know why.
Qonsequences
What will be the consequences? We tested three of Mr Trump’s election promises and produced a graph that is interesting to say the least. Will he keep his promises? Click here for graphics. In Quattroporte’s analysis we see a lot of consequences for the coming four years. Here are three examples: there is a high probability that the wall against Mexico really gets built. But also the probability for increased protectionism resulting in scrapped/renegotiated free trade agreements. Also politics based on climate change scepticism where the Paris agreements are not likely to become a reality In the USA. The conclusion is that a lot of Trump’s rhetoric will indeed become policy. A lot will be different in the USA and the world in four years.
Counsel
Could Hillary have won if she had been given better advice? Good counselling must build on solid empirical basis. But with the wrong basis her chances are very limited. The advisors she relied on had an incorrect view of the world. If she had used modern methods she would have known what works and how to create opinion. She would have known what geographical areas to focus on in the run up to Election Day. Traditional surveys resulted in mistaken prioritisations when focus was paramount. This became fateful for her.
The explanation
Does Donald Trump’s mortal enemy, political news anchor Megyn Kelly (Fox News), know the truth? Check this out.
During the comin years there is a high probability that the wall against Mexico really gets built. But also the probability for increased protectionism resulting in scrapped/renegotiated free trade agreements. Also politics based on climate change scepticism where the Paris agreements are not likely to become a reality In the USA. The conclusion is that a lot of Trump’s rhetoric will indeed become policy.